Democratic Backsliding Tracker

V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index (Polyarchy)

The Electoral Democracy Index — also known as the Polyarchy Index — is produced by the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project at the University of Gothenburg. It is the most widely cited academic measure of electoral democracy and draws on thousands of expert codings across 202 countries dating back to 1789.

The index captures five core principles of electoral democracy:

• Elected officials — Are government positions filled through elections?
• Clean elections — Are elections free from fraud, intimidation, and manipulation?
• Freedom of expression — Can citizens and media freely criticize the government?
• Freedom of association — Can opposition parties, civil society, and unions organize?
• Suffrage — Do all adult citizens have the right to vote?

Scores range from 0 (least democratic) to 1 (most democratic). A score above ~0.75 generally indicates a well-functioning electoral democracy; a score below ~0.4 raises serious concerns about electoral integrity.

V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index

The Liberal Democracy Index goes beyond elections to ask whether individual rights and institutional checks limit the power of elected governments. A country can hold regular elections while still concentrating power dangerously — the liberal democracy index captures this distinction.

It combines the Polyarchy Index with measures of:

• Judicial independence — Can courts rule against the government without retaliation?
• Rule of law — Are government officials subject to the same laws as citizens?
• Civil liberties — Are freedoms of movement, religion, and private life protected?
• Legislative constraints — Can the legislature effectively check executive power?

This index is typically lower than the polyarchy index because it sets a higher bar. A country with relatively free elections but a captured judiciary will score well on polyarchy but poorly on liberal democracy — a warning sign of incipient autocratization.

ERT Episodes of Regime Transformation

The ERT dataset, developed by Anna Lührmann, Seraphine Maerz, and colleagues at V-Dem, identifies discrete episodes in which a country's regime type is changing in a consistent direction. Rather than comparing point-in-time scores, ERT identifies trajectories — sustained moves toward or away from democracy.

Episode types displayed in this tracker:

• Autocratization — A country is experiencing a significant, sustained decline in electoral democracy scores. This is the core signal of democratic backsliding.
• Democratic erosion — A more gradual weakening of democratic institutions or norms, often below the threshold of a full autocratization episode.
• Crisis — A discrete political crisis (coup attempt, constitutional breakdown, contested election) that destabilizes democratic governance.
• Closed autocracy — The country has been an entrenched autocracy with no meaningful competitive elections for an extended period.

BTI Bertelsmann Transformation Index

The Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI), produced by the Bertelsmann Stiftung in Germany, measures the quality of democracy and governance in developing and transition countries. It is based on country expert assessments updated every two years.

This tracker displays the BTI Governance Score (also called the Management Index), which assesses the quality of political management — specifically how well governing elites guide transformation processes, manage crises, and operate within institutional constraints. Scores range from 1 (worst) to 10 (best).

Key dimensions assessed:

• Steering capability — Strategic vision and coherent reform priorities
• Resource efficiency — Efficient use of economic and human resources
• Consensus-building — Ability to forge compromise and manage social conflicts
• International cooperation — Credible engagement with international norms and institutions

Status Categories

Each country is assigned a single status label synthesizing the V-Dem, ERT, and BTI data. These are editorial judgments based on the combination of indicators and recent events — they are not mechanically derived from any single threshold.

Limitations & Caveats

• Expert coding variability: V-Dem scores are derived from expert surveys. Different experts may code the same events differently, introducing measurement uncertainty that is not always reflected in the final scores.
• Lag: Academic datasets typically have a 1–2 year publication lag. Events from 2024–2025 may not yet be fully reflected in official index scores.
• Coverage gaps: BTI does not cover all countries (e.g. USA, Canada, most of Western Europe). BTI scores shown for those countries are indicative only.
• Aggregation choices: Combining multiple indices into a single "status" label involves editorial judgment. Reasonable analysts could reach different conclusions from the same underlying data.
• Electoral vs. liberal democracy: A country may perform well on electoral indicators while seriously violating minority rights or rule of law. Always examine both indices together.

Data Sources